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ARC WEATHER 29/11 0600Z - FORECAST UPDATE #5



ARC WEATHER 29/11 0600Z - FORECAST UPDATE #5
29/11/2014


Synopsis: broad gale centered between Madeira and Gibraltar Strait will weaken and move NE across Gibraltar towards the Balearics THRU tomorrow morning. Circulations from this gale will remain extended SW across the canaries into tomorrow morning. Thermal trough will develop within circulations thru the day, extending from Morocco along s'rn Portugal, persisting into 2/12.

Broad ridging extends SW across the central Atlantic from 55W towards Cape Verde Islands this morning from high pressure near 33N/37W. High slides NE over Azores THRU tomorrow afternoon, with ridging remaining across the e'rn central Atlantic. Frontal boundary will extend SW from near 40N/43W towards 25N and 60W by this evening. Frontal boundary will slide ENE to extend from near 40N/35W SW towards 25N/55W thru late 1/12, weakening south of 35N, eventually disseating S of 35N by late 2/12. Broad high pressure ridging will have remained extended across e'rn central Atlantic during this time, with stronger ridging building SE across the central Atlantic from large strong high moving offshore Canadian Maritimes 3/12-4/12.

Conclusion: very large swells extend across grids AA BB and e'rn CC this morning, and will build into HH and GG thru the next 12-24hrs from north to south. Areas within/directly south-southeast of the Canaries are seeing some protection from swells and winds, and will generally see swells lower more quickly then any other grid moving thru the next 2 days strong N winds enhanced by gale/high interactions will blow across BB and into N GG and N HH today, lowering and becoming more uniform into tomorrow.

To the west, trade winds will tend to ease across DD, n'rn and central II, and n'rn JJ into tomorrow as above noted frontal boundary breaks high pressure across central Atlantic and eases enhanced trades. However as front lifts away thru coming days, trades are re-energized with building ridging in the long range.

T = 29/11 0600 UTC

ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHWRS/SQUALLS* IN ALL GRID AREAS

AA:

T: WINDS W-NW 25-30 GUSTS 35KTS SEAS 5-6 SWELLS W-NW 13-15FT (3SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM WNW @ 0.4KTS
T+12: WINDS WNW-NNW EASE 27-15KTS SEAS 6-3 SWELLS WNW-NNW=A0 LOWER 13-8FT (3SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NNE @ 0.4KTS
T+24: WINDS NNW-NNE 12-17KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NW-N 6-8FT (3SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM NNE @ 0.2KTS
T+36: WINDS NW-N 09-14KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS WNW-NNW 4-6FT (5SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NNE @ 0.3KTS

BB:
T: WINDS WNW-NNW 25-30 GUSTS 35KTS SEAS 5-6 SWELLS NW-N 15-17FT (8SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM N @ 0.3KTS
T+12: WINDS NNW-NNE 21-26KTS SEAS 4-5 SWELLS NNW-NNE LOWER 16-12FT (8SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NNE @ 0.3KTS
T+24: WINDS NNW-NNE 16-21KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNW-NNE LOWER 12-9FT (7SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM WNW @ 0.1KTS
T+36: WINDS NNW-NNE 15-20KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNW-NNE 7-9FT (7SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.3KTS

GG:
T: WINDS W-NW 14-19 GUSTS 23KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNW-NNE BUILD 7-12FT (2SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM S @ 0.6KTS
T+12: WINDS WNW-NNW 12-17 GUSTS 20KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 12-14FT (2SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDYCURRENTS FROM WSW @ 0.2KTS
T+24: WINDS NNW-NNE 11-16KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 11-13FT (2SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 0.5KTS
T+36: WINDS NNE-ENE 09-14KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 9-11FT (3SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 0.3KTS

CC:
T: WINDS N-NE 17-22 GUSTS 25KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNW-NNE 12-14FT (8SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.4KTS
T+12: WINDS N-NE 15-20 GUSTS 23KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNW-NNE 10-12FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.4KTS
T+24: WINDS NNE-ENE 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNW-NNE 9-11FT (9SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDYCURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.4KTS
T+36: WINDS NNE-ENE 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNW-NNE 8-10FT (8SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDYCURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.4KTS

HH:
T: WINDS NNE-ENE 12-17 GUSTS 20KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE BUILD 6-11FT (7SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.5KTS
T+12: WINDS N-NE 15-20 GUSTS 23KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNW-NNE 10-12FT (7SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM S / WEAKKTS
T+24: WINDS NNE-ENE 15-20 GUSTS 23KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNW-NNE 9-11FT (11SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.4KTS
T+36: WINDS NE-E 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNW-NNE 8-10FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.4KTS

NN:
T: WINDS NNE-ENE 17-22 GUSTS 25KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (5SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.6KTS
T+12: WINDS NNE-ENE 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 7-9FT (6SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.4KTS
T+24: WINDS NNE-ENE 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 9-11FT (8SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NNE @ 0.3KTS
T+36: WINDS NE-E 12-17KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 9-11FT (4SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.8KTS

DD:
T: WINDS NE-E 10-15KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 7-9FT (7SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.2KTS
T+12: WINDS NNE-ENE 10-15KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 6-8FT (11SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE / WEAKKTS
T+24: WINDS NE-E 11-16KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 6-8FT (10SEC) SKIES CLDYCURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.3KTS
T+36: WINDS ENE-ESE 14-19KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 5-7FT (10SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 0.1KTS

II:
T: WINDS NE-E 14-19 GUSTS 22KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNW-NNE 5-7FT (7SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NNE @ 0.4KTS
T+12: WINDS NE-E 12-17 GUSTS 20KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NE-E 5-7FT (7SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.6KTS
T+24: WINDS NE-E 11-16KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NE-E 5-7FT (7SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.3KTS
T+36: WINDS NE-E 14-19 GUSTS 22KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNW-NNE 6-8FT (12SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.7KTS

JJ:
T: WINDS ENE-ESE 17-22 GUSTS 25KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NE-E 6-8FT (7SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM NNW @ 0.2KTS
T+12: WINDS ENE-ESE 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS ENE-ESE 6-8FT (7SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.6KTS
T+24: WINDS NE-E 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS ENE-ESE 5-7FT (7SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.2KTS
T+36: WINDS NE-E 15-20KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS ENE-ESE 4-6FT (7SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.3KTS

* WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN SQUALLS