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ARC WEATHER 01/12 0600Z - FORECAST UPDATE #7



ARC WEATHER 01/12 0600Z - FORECAST UPDATE #7
01/12/2014

Happy Month!

Synopsis: Broad ridging extends SSE across the e'rn central Atlantic towards Cape Verde Islands between 45W and 18W. Ridging will remain in place thru 5/12, though will weaken thru the next few days. Complex trough of low pressure extends SW from near 36N/35W towards 27N/55W this morning. Trough will break into two parts, with the n'rn portion forming a cut-off low near 36N/40W by midday tomorrow before slowly moving E towards 37W thru midday 4/12. S'rn portion will form a broad inverted trough between 60W and 48W from 20N to 28N by midday tomorrow. Broad trough will move W towards 65W thru early 4/12.

Conclusion: winds will tend to increase slightly thru today and tonight across e'rn grids such as CC HH DD and II as large swells continue to lower thru the day today. Trough noted above across the central Atlantic will remain north of below grids today and tomorrow, but will weaken high pressure ridging across the lower and e'rn central Atlantic, most notably across grids KK JJ EE thru today and tomorrow. Grids QQ and PP will also notice less enhanced trade winds by tomorrow, with strongest winds across the s'rn portions of the grids.  Moving forward, above noted broad inverted trough in the long range will tend continue to block ridging across the w'rn grids and minimize enhancement of trades. Trough will also bring increased squall activity to n'rn KK and JJ as well as all of grids FF and EE from the late 2/12 thru 4/12.

T = 01/12 0600 UTC

SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*IN ALL GRID AREAS

CC:
T: WINDS NE-E 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 6-8FT (7SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.4KTS.
T+12: WINDS NNE-ENE 16-21KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (6SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.3KTS.
T+24: WINDS NE-E 15-20KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNE-ENE 5-7FT (5SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.3KTS.
T+36: WINDS NE-E 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-ENE 5-7FT (5SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.3KTS.

HH:
T: WINDS NE-E 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE LOWER 10-7FT (8SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.2KTS.
T+12: WINDS NE-E 16-21KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 6-8FT (6SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.5KTS.
T+24: WINDS ENE-ESE 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNE-ENE 5-7FT (5SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.3KTS.
T+36: WINDS NE-E 12-17KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-ENE 4-6FT (5SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.6KTS.

NN:
T: WINDS NNE-ENE 12-17KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 7-9FT (3SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.2KTS.
T+12: WINDS NNE-ENE 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 6-8FT (3SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.3KTS.
T+24: WINDS NE-E 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (3SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.2KTS.
T+36: WINDS NE-E 10-15KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-ENE 4-6FT (3SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.4KTS.

DD:
T: WINDS NE-E 12-17KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 6-8FT (10SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.5KTS.
T+12: WINDS ENE-ESE 15-20KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 0.5KTS.
T+24: WINDS ENE-ESE 16-21KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNW-NNE 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.4KTS.
T+36: WINDS ENE-ESE 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NW-N 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM S @ 0.6KTS.

II:
T: WINDS NE-E 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 5-7FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.5KTS.
T+12: WINDS NE-E 16-21KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.4KTS.
T+24: WINDS ENE-ESE 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.5KTS.
T+36: WINDS ENE-ESE 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.4KTS.

OO:
T: WINDS NE-E 11-16KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 6-8FT (12SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.5KTS.
T+12: WINDS NE-E 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 5-7FT (11SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.9KTS.
T+24: WINDS ENE-ESE 12-17KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.7KTS.
T+36: WINDS NE-E 11-16KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.5KTS.

EE:
T: WINDS NE-E 08-13KTS SEAS 1-2 SWELLS NNW-NNE 3-5FT (7SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM WSW @ 0.1KTS.
T+12: WINDS ENE-ESE 11-16KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 4-6FT (9SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 0.4KTS.
T+24: WINDS ENE-ESE 10-15KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NW-N 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM WSW @ 0.3KTS.
T+36: WINDS E-SE 10-15KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NW-N 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 0.5KTS.

JJ:
T: WINDS NE-E 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NE-E  4-6FT (6SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NNE @ 0.3KTS.
T+12: WINDS ENE-ESE 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 4-6FT (6SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.7KTS.
T+24: WINDS ENE-ESE 12-17KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 4-6FT (6SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM N @ 0.1KTS.
T+36: WINDS ENE-ESE 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NNE 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.5KTS.

PP:
T: WINDS NE-E 15-20KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NE-E 5-7FT (7SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM S @ 0.8KTS.
T+12: WINDS NE-E 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS ENE-ESE 5-7FT (6SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 1.4KTS.
T+24: WINDS ENE-ESE 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS ENE-ESE 4-6FT (6SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 1.2KTS.
T+36: WINDS ENE-ESE 11-16KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NE-E 4-6FT (7SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM S @ 1.1KTS.

KK:
T: WINDS ENE-ESE 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS ENE-ESE 4-6FT (7SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.4KTS.
T+12: WINDS E-SE 15-20KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS E-SE 4-6FT (7SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.8KTS.
T+24: WINDS E-SE 12-17KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS E-SE/MIXED/NW 4-6FT (7SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.3KTS.
T+36: WINDS ENE-ESE 10-15KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NE-E/MIXED/NW 5-7FT (8SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.6KTS.

QQ:
T: WINDS NE-E 15-20KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS ENE-ESE 5-7FT (7SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.3KTS.
T+12: WINDS ENE-ESE 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS ENE-ESE 5-7FT (7SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.4KTS.
T+24: WINDS ENE-ESE 15-20KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS ENE-ESE 4-6FT (7SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.3KTS.
T+36: WINDS ENE-ESE 12-17KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS ENE-ESE 4-6FT (7SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 0.4KTS.

RR:
T: WINDS ENE-ESE 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS ENE-ESE 5-7FT (2SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.6KTS.
T+12: WINDS NE-E 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS ENE-ESE 5-7FT (3SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.7KTS.
T+24: WINDS ENE-ESE 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS ENE-ESE 6-8FT (3SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.8KTS.
T+36: WINDS ENE-ESE 12-17KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS ENE-ESE 6-8FT (4SEC) SKIES CLEAR CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.8KTS.

* WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN SQUALLS