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ARC WEATHER 02/12 0600Z - FORECAST UPDATE #8



ARC WEATHER 02/12 0600Z - FORECAST UPDATE #8
02/12/2014

Synopsis: broad high pressure ridging extends S between 40W and 20W towards 23N from high pressure north of the Azores. Ridging will weaken and retreat N towards 30N while also extending SE over the Canaries towards Morocco through the next 2 days. Ridging will build over Canaries on 4/5/12, then build SWS across the E Central Atlantic on 6/7/12.


Inverted trough of low pressure extends SW from near 40N/38W towards 25N/55W. Cut-off low will form near 38N/38W by midday tomorrow, then slowly slides S towards 35N through early 4/12 before dissipating by early 5/12. S'rn portion of the trough persists, though, broadening and moving W to sit between 65W and 55W by morning of 3/12. Trough will extend N towards 35N through 5/12, eventually forming a second cut-off low near 34N/54W by 6/12 which will move NE towards 55N/30W through 7/8/12.


Conclusion: trough will work to weaken enhancement of trade winds from ridging across all girds today. Broad trough across w'rn central Atlantic by 3/12 will bring lighter airs mixed with enhanced/widespread squalls/showers across grids FF LL as well as n'rn KK. Most consistent winds are expected to be found across n'rn RR, QQ, PP, and s'rn KK and JJ through the next two days. Also of note, forecast for grid AA covers waters directly south and southwest of the canaries, where islands will block larger n'ly swells and also work to slightly reduce winds.


T = 02/12 0600 UTC


SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS* IN ALL GRID AREAS.


AA:
T: WINDS NNE-ENE 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NW-N 3-5FT (2SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NNE @ 0.2KTS
T+12: WINDS NNE-ENE 12-17KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 3-5FT (3SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.3KTS
T+24: WINDS NE-E 10-15KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 3-5FT (3SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.3KTS
T+36: WINDS NE-E 09-14KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 2-4FT (2SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.1KTS

BB:
T: WINDS NNE-ENE 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 6-8FT (5SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.2KTS
T+12: WINDS NNE-ENE 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (5SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.2KTS
T+24: WINDS NE-E 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 4-6FT (4SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 0.3KTS
T+36: WINDS NE-E 10-15KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 4-6FT (4SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM N @ 0.1KTS

CC:
T: WINDS NE-E 15-20KTS SEAS 2-4 SWELLS NNE-ENE 5-7FT (5SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.3KTS
T+12: WINDS NE-E 12-17KTS SEAS 2-4 SWELLS NNE-ENE 5-7FT (5SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.3KTS
T+24: WINDS ENE-ESE 10-15KTS SEAS 2-4 SWELLS NE-E 5-7FT (5SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.2KTS
T+36: WINDS NE-E 10-15KTS SEAS 1-3 SWELLS NNE-ENE 5-7FT (6SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.2KTS

HH:
T: WINDS NE-E 15-20KTS SEAS 2-4 SWELLS NNE-ENE 6-8FT (6SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.2KTS
T+12: WINDS NE-E 14-19KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-ENE 5-7FT (4SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.6KTS
T+24: WINDS ENE-ESE 12-17KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNE-ENE 5-7FT (5SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM N @ 0.1KTS
T+36: WINDS ENE-ESE 10-15KTS SEAS 2-4 SWELLS NNE-ENE 4-6FT (5SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.5KTS

NN:
T: WINDS NE-E 14-19KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (3SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 0.3KTS
T+12: WINDS NE-E 14-19KTS SEAS 2-4 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (3SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.5KTS
T+24: WINDS NE-E 15-20KTS SEAS 2-4 SWELLS NNE-ENE 4-6FT (3SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 0.5KTS
T+36: WINDS NE-E 14-19KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-ENE 3-5FT (3SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.4KTS


DD:
T: WINDS ENE-ESE 15-20KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNW-NNE 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.7KTS
T+12: WINDS ENE-ESE 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NW-N 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 0.7KTS
T+24: WINDS ENE-ESE 11-16KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NW-N 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.6KTS
T+36: WINDS NE-E 12-17KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 0.5KTS

II:
T: WINDS NE-E 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NNE @ 0.5KTS
T+12: WINDS ENE-ESE 15-20KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.6KTS
T+24: WINDS NE-E 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM NNE @ 0.4KTS
T+36: WINDS NE-E 11-16KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.4KTS


OO:
T: WINDS NE-E 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.8KTS
T+12: WINDS ENE-ESE 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (10SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.6KTS
T+24: WINDS ENE-ESE 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 4-6FT (10SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.8KTS
T+36: WINDS ENE-ESE 12-17KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 4-6FT (9SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.9KTS

EE:
T: WINDS ENE-ESE 10-15KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NW-N 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM SW @ 0.4KTS
T+12: WINDS E-SE 10-15KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NW-N 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 0.3KTS
T+24: WINDS E-SE 12-17KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 0.4KTS
T+36: WINDS E-SE 10-15KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM S @ 0.3KTS

JJ:
T: WINDS NE-E 10-15KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 4-6FT (6SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM N @ 0.1KTS
T+12: WINDS E-SE 10-15KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.5KTS
T+24: WINDS ENE-ESE 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM NNE @ 0.2KTS
T+36: WINDS ENE-ES 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNW-NNE 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.3KTS

PP:
T: WINDS ENE-ESE 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NE-E 4-6FT (6SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM S @ 1KTS
T+12: WINDS ENE-ESE 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NE-E 5-7FT (6SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM S @ 0.9KTS
T+24: WINDS ENE-ESE 11-16KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (8SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 1.2KTS
T+36: WINDS ENE-ESE 10-15KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 1KTS

KK:
T: WINDS E-SE 12-17KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NW-N 4-6FT (6SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.3KTS
T+12: WINDS ENE-ESE 10-15KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NW-N 5-7FT (8SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.6KTS
T+24: WINDS E-SE 10-15KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 4-6FT (8SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.4KTS
T+36: WINDS E-SE 09-14KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.4KTS

QQ:
T: WINDS ENE-ESE 15-20KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS ENE-ESE 5-7FT (7SEC) SKIES MSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.3KTS
T+12: WINDS E-SE 12-17KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS ENE-ESE 5-7FT (6SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 0.5KTS
T+24: WINDS ENE-ESE 11-16KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 4-6FT (7SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM N @ 0.4KTS
T+36: WINDS E-SE 10-15KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-ENE 4-6FT (7SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.4KTS

RR:
T: WINDS NE-E 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS ENE-ESE 5-7FT (4SEC) SKIES CLEAR. CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.9KTS
T+12: WINDS ENE-ESE 12-17KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NE-E 4-6FT (4SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.7KTS
T+24: WINDS ENE-ESE 12-17KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NE-E 4-6FT (3SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NNE @ 0.4KTS
T+36: WINDS ENE-ESE 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NE-E 4-6FT (3SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.8KTS

* WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN SQUALLS