Synopsis: Trans broad high pressure ridging extends S between 50W and 22W this morning from large high pressure north of the Azores. Ridging will build thru today while remaining in place, then weaken near 25W by early 8/12 as cut-off low forms near 25N/25W. Cut-off quickly forms into a minimal cut-off gale while moving W towards 33W thru midday 9/12, then weakens into a broad cut-off low while passing 37W thru midday 10/12.
Ridging will remain extended S towards 20N between 50W and 30W by midday 8/12, but will weaken and retreat NNE towards 30N thru late 8/12 and 9/12. Broad inverted trough of low presure extends N from near 18N towards 30N between 64W and 52W this morning, and will shift WNW and extend across much of the W Atlantic by tomorrow morning. Trough then remains in place thru 9/12 to 10/12 as low forms within N portion and moves NE into N Atlantic thru late 8/12 to 9/12.
Conclusion: Building ridging across the central Atlantic today and tomorrow will lead to increasing strong/gusty winds across N grids as well as large swells. Largest swells will be seen across DD and CC, with enhanced swells reaching S into JJ II HH BB and NE KK by tomorrow. Moving forward, great contrast is expected across CC and DD on the 8/12 to 9/12 as above noted cut-off low/gale forms and moves W, with very strong gusty winds and largest swells across central and N portions of said girds, with much lower winds (mid-lower teens) across S portions. Across the Atlantic, airs are expected to lower across RR and QQ on 8/12 to 9/12 as ridging retreats and trough leads to weaker gradients across the grids.
Squall activity is expected to be heaviest and most widespread across KK FF and LL today, with widespread squalls across CC and E DD today into tomorrow. Widespread heavy squalls forecast to persist in KK and FF into tomorrow as well, with some squalls working S into N QQ.
T = 6/12 0600 UTC
SHWRS/SQUALLS*IN ALL GRID AREAS
BB:
T:WINDS NNE-ENE 17-22 GUSTS 25KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNE-ENE 5-7FT (4SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.3KTS.
T+12:WINDS NNE-ENE 20-25 GUSTS 27KTS SEAS 4-5 SWELLS N-NE 7-9FT (4SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.2KTS.
T+24:WINDS NNE-ENE 20-25 GUSTS 27KTS SEAS 4-5 SWELLS N-NE 7-9FT (5SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.2KTS.
T + 36:WINDS NE-E 22-27 GUSTS 30KTS SEAS 4-5 SWELLS N-NE 8-10FT (4SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.2KTS.
CC:
T:WINDS ENE-ESE 19-24 GUSTS 27KTS SEAS 4-5 SWELLS NNE-ENE 6-8FT (6SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.2KTS.
T+12:WINDS NNE-ENE 22-27 GUSTS 30KTS SEAS 4-5 SWELLS NNE-ENE 7-9FT (6SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 0.2KTS.
T+24:WINDS NNE-ENE 24-29 GUSTS 32KTS SEAS 5-6 SWELLS NNE-ENE 7-9FT (7SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTSFROM ESE @ 0.3KTS.
T + 36:WINDS NNE-ENE 24-29 GUSTS 32KTS SEAS 5-6 SWELLS NNE-ENE 9-11FT (8SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM WSW @ 0.2KTS.
HH:
T:WINDS ENE-ES 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NE-E 6-8FT (5SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.5KTS.
T+12:WINDS ENE-ESE 15-20KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NE-E 7-9FT (6SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.4KTS.
T+24:WINDS NE-E 16-21KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNE-ENE 7-9FT (5SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.7KTS.
T + 36:WINDS NE-E 19-24 GUSTS 27KTS SEAS 4-5 SWELLS N-NE 7-9FT (6SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.4KTS. NN:
T:WINDS ENE-ESE 15-20KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNE-ENE 4-6FT (4SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 0.2KTS.
T+12:WINDS NE-E 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NE-E 5-7FT (4SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTSFROM ESE @ 0.5KTS.
T+24:WINDS NE-E 11-16KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-ENE 5-7FT (4SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.3KTS.
T + 36:WINDS ENE-ESE 10-15KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLSNNE-ENE 6-8FT (4SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.2KTS.
DD:
T:WINDS ENE-ESE 19-24 GUSTS 27KTS SEAS 4-5 SWELLS NNW-NNE 7-10FT (9SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.6KTS.
T+12:WINDS NE-E 23-28 GUSTS 32KTS SEAS 4-5 SWELLSNNW-NNE 10-13FT (9SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.5KTS.
T+24:WINDS NE-E 27-32 GUSTS 35KTS SEAS 5-6 SWELLSNNE-ENE 12-14FT (9SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.8KTS.
T + 36:WINDS NE-E 26-31 GUSTS 34KTS SEAS 5-6 SWELLSNNE-ENE 10-12FT (8SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.4KTS.
II:
T:WINDS NE-E ) 16-21KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNW-NNE 5-7FT (7SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.5KTS.
T+12:WINDS ENE-ESE 17-22KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNW-NNE 6-8FT (7SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLD CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.4KTS.
T+24:WINDS NE-E 19-24KTS SEAS 4-5 SWELLS NNW-NNE 7-9FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.6KTS.
T + 36:WINDS NNE-ENE 21-26 GUSTS 29KTS SEAS 4-5 SWELLS N-NE 9-11FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.5KTS.
OO:
T:WINDS NE-E 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 4-6FT (8SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.4KTS.
T+12:WINDS NE-E 11-16KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-ENE 5-7FT (7SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.9KTS.
T+24:WINDS NE-E 14-19KTS SEAS 2-4 SWELLS NNE-ENE 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.9KTS.
T + 36:WINDS NE-E 15-20KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 6-8FT (9SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 1.2KTS.
EE:
T:WINDS ENE-ESE 20-25KTS SEAS 4-5 SWELLS N-NE 7-9FT (10SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM S @ 0.4KTS.
T+12:WINDS ENE-ESE 21-26 GUSTS 29KTS SEAS 4-5 SWELLS N-NE 8-10FT (10SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.3KTS.
T+24:WINDS ENE-ESE 25-30 GUSTS 33KTS SEAS 5-6 SWELLS N-NE 10-12FT (9SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 0.3KTS.
T + 36:WINDS ENE-ESE 24-29 GUSTS 33KTS SEAS 5-6 SWELLS NNE-ENE 11-13FT (9SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM S @ 0.4KTS.
JJ:
T:WINDS ENE-ESE 15-20 GUSTS 23KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNE-ENE 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.2KTS.
T+12:WINDS E-SE 17-22 GUSTS 25KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNE-ENE 6-8FT (9SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.6KTS.
T+24:WINDS ENE-ESE 20-25 GUSTS 27KTS SEAS 4-5 SWELLS N-NE 7-9FT (10SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.4KTS.
T + 36:WINDS ENE-ESE 21-26 GUSTS 29KTS SEAS 4-5 SWELLS N-NE 8-10FT (10SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.7KTS.
PP:
T:WINDS ENE-ESE 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 6-8FT (8SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.7KTS.
T+12:WINDS ENE-ESE 15-20KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 6-8FT (7SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 1.3KTS.
T+24:WINDS ENE-ESE 15-20KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.8KTS.
T + 36:WINDS ENE-ESE 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 4-6FT (6SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 1.2KTS.
KK:
T:WINDS E-SE 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 6-8FT (7SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM S @ 0.2KTS.
T+12:WINDS ESE-SSE 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM S @ 0.5KTS.
T+24:WINDS ESE-SSE 16-21KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (10SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 0.3KTS.
T + 36:WINDS ESE-SSE 16-21KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (6SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 0.1KTS.
QQ:
T:WINDS E-SE 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 4-6FT (8SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SW @ 0.4KTS.
T+12:WINDS E-SE 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (7SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 0.8KTS.
T+24:WINDS E-SE 11-16KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (8SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM WSW @ 0.6KTS.
T + 36:WINDS ENE-ESE 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (10SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SW @ 0.4KTS.
RR:
T:WINDS E-SE 12-17KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 4-6FT (5SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.3KTS.
T+12:WINDS SE-S 10-15KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-ENE 3-5FT (4SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.7KTS.
T+24:WINDS SE-S 10-15KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-ENE 3-5FT (3SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.4KTS.
T + 36:WINDS ESE-SSE 11-16KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NE-E 3-5FT (2SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.8KTS.
* WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN SQUALLS
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