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ARC WEATHER 07/12 0600Z - FORECAST UPDATE #13



ARC WEATHER 07/12 0600Z - FORECAST UPDATE #13
07/12/2014


Synopsis: good morning. Strong high pressure near the Azores will move little thru the 9/12 with only a slight weakening. A new high will move SE across the N Atlantic to merge with the initial high during the 10/12, with the merged high then remaining between the Azores and Iberia thru 12/12 with a gradual weakening. Ridging associated with the high extends strongly SE across the canaries, S to approximately 20N and SW to near 50W. This ridging will become disrupted by the development of a cut-off gale.

This cutoff will begin to develop near 25N/25W am 8/12 and it will rapidly strengthen to a gale as it moves W to near 30W by evening 8/12, then slowing somewhat during the 9/12 and drifting W before then turning N to 27N/35W and slowly weakening thru the 10/12. A WSW drift will then occur thru 12/12 with the remains of the gale moving to near 25N/42W by late 12/12. The ridging will remain strong NE/N and NW of the system, with ridging weakening considerably to its S from the 8/12 thru the 12/12.

To the W, broad inverted trough of low pressure extends N towards 35N from near 20N between 72W and 52W. Embedded broad but weak low near 27N/61W will move NE into N Atlantic thru this evening, leaving a weakened trough in lace into tomorrow morning. Trough then persists thru early 10/12 in this weakened state.

Conclusion: Cut-off gale to form across girds CC thru tomorrow will lead to confused winds across grid HH as winds in the W portion of the grid shift from N - NW - W- SW by late tomorrow. Winds across E grid will shift to a more S direction, and remain as such tomorrow. Squall activity will become widespread across HH, with heavy squalls/showers across CC thru 9/12. Grid CC should be avoided as very rough weather will develop with the developing cut-off.

Elsewhere, widespread showers across GG and S BB this morning will give way and become more scattered by tomorrow. Widespread - and at times heavy - squalls/showers dominate FF and N KK, with widespread squalls across S KK and N QQ. Squalls will weaken and become less numerous across QQ, with squalls remaining widespread across KK thru late tomorrow into the 9/12 as broad inverted trough weakens as noted above.

T = 7/12 0600 UTC

SHWRS/SQUALLS*IN ALL GRID AREAS

BB:

T:WINDS NE-E 20-25 GUSTS 27KTS SEAS 4-5 SWELLS N-NE 8-10FT (4SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NNE @ 0.4KTS.
T+12:WINDS NE-E 22-27 GUSTS 30KTS SEAS 4-5 SWELLS N-NE 8-10FT (4SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.3KTS.
T+24:WINDS NE-E 24-29 GUSTS 33KTS SEAS 5-6 SWELLS NNE-ENE 7-9FT (4SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.2KTS.
T+36:WINDS NE-E 21-26 GUSTS 29KTS SEAS 4-5 SWELLS NE-E  6-8FT (4SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 0.5KTS.


GG:
T:WINDS NE-E 19-24 GUSTS 27KTS SEAS 4-5 SWELLS NNE-ENE 6-8FT (2SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM SW @ 0.5KTS.
T+12:WINDS NNE-ENE 16-21 GUSTS 24KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE  6-8FT (2SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM WNW / WEAK.
T+24:WINDS NNE-ENE 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE  6-8FT (2SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SW @ 0.6KTS.
T+36:WINDS NE-E 11-16KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (2SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NW @ 0.2KTS.


HH:
T:WINDS ENE-ESE 12-17 GUSTS 20KTS SEAS 2-3  SWELLS NNE-ENE  6-8FT (6SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.8KTS.
T+12:WINDS E-NE-N 17-22 GUSTS 27KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE  7-9FT (6SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.2KTS.
T+24:WINDS NW-N/VARY 16-21 GUSTS 26KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNW-NNE  7-9FT (7SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.8KTS.
T+36:WINDS SW-W 14-19 GUSTS 22KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE  7-9FT (8SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.8KTS.


NN:
T:WINDS NE-E 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-ENE 5-7FT (4SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.2KTS.
T+12:WINDS NE-E 10-15KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-ENE 5-7FT (4SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NE / WEAK.
T+24:WINDS NE 09-14KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-ENE 5-7FT (6SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.2KTS.
T+36:WINDS NNE-ENE 07-12KTS SEAS 1-2 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (6SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.4KTS.


II:
T:WINDS NE-E 15-20KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNW-NNE 7-9FT (9SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.5KTS.
T+12:WINDS NNE-ENE 18-23 GUSTS 26KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE  8-10FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.3KTS.
T+24:WINDS NNE-ENE 21-26 GUSTS 29KTS SEAS 4-5 SWELLS N-NE  9-11FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.6KTS.
T+36:WINDS NNE-ENE 19-24 GUSTS 27KTS SEAS 4-5 SWELLS N-NE  8-10FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.6KTS.


OO:
T:WINDS NE-E 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNW-NNE 5-7FT (6SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.8KTS.
T+12:WINDS NNE-ENE 15-20KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE  6-8FT (9SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.9KTS.
T+24:WINDS NNE-ENE 15-20 GUSTS 23KTS SEAS 3-4  SWELLS NNW-NNE  7-9FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 0.7KTS.
T+36:WINDS NNE-ENE 15-20KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 7-9FT (10SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.6KTS.


JJ:
T:WINDS ENE-ESE 17-22KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 7-9FT (10SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.5KTS.
T+12:WINDS ENE-ESE 19-24 GUSTS 27KTS SEAS 4-5  SWELLS N-NE  9-12FT (10SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.7KTS.
T+24:WINDS ENE-ESE 20-25 GUSTS 27KTS SEAS 4-5 SWELLS N-NE  9-12FT (10SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.3KTS
T+36:WINDS NE-E 19-24 GUSTS 27KTS SEAS 4-5 SWELLS NNE-ENE  8-11FT (10SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY. CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.8KTS.


PP:
T:WINDS ENE-ESE 16-21KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NNE  7-9FT (6SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.7KTS.
T+12:WINDS ENE-ESE 16-21KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 9-11FT (7SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 1.1KTS.
T+24:WINDS NE-E 17-22KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 9-11FT (7SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.5KTS.
T+36:WINDS NE-E 16-21KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 8-10FT (7SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 1.1KTS.


KK:
T:WINDS SE-S 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (10SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM S @ 0.5KTS.
T+12:WINDS SE-S 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 6-8FT (6SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 0.4KTS.
T+24:WINDS ESE-SSE 15-20KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNE-ENE  7-9FT (10SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM S @ 0.4KTS.
T+36:WINDS ENE-ESE 12-17 GUSTS 20KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-ENE  7-9FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM S @ 0.4KTS.


QQ:
T:WINDS E-SE 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE  6-8FT (8SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 0.4KTS.
T+12:WINDS E-SE 12-17KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (10SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 0.6KTS.
T+24:WINDS ENE-ESE 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (7SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM S @ 0.3KTS.
T+36:WINDS ENE-ESE 12-17KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 4-6FT (7SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM S @ 0.4KTS.

RR:
T:WINDS SE-S 07-12KTS SEAS 1-2 SWELLS NNE-ENE  3-5FT (6SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.5KTS.
T+12:WINDS ESE-SSE 09-14KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-ENE  3-5FT (5SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.7KTS.
T+24:WINDS ENE-ESE 12-17KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NE-E 3-5FT (3SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.4KTS.
T+36:WINDS ENE-ESE 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NE-E 4-6FT (4SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.7KTS.


* WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN SQUALLS