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ARC WEATHER 09/12 0600Z - FORECAST UPDATE #15



ARC WEATHER 09/12 0600Z - FORECAST UPDATE #15
09/12/2014


Synopsis: A cut off gale, near 23N/32W will move NW towards 25N/35W thru the 10/12 while gradually weakening, thru the 11/12. This cut off will then transition into an inverted trough extending from 20N towards 35N and from 30W to 45W by morning 11/12. High pressure ridging extending SW towards 20N between 50W towards 70W will remain in place thru tomorrow before weakening on 11/12.

Conclusion: Continue to strongly recommend vessels remain outside of N grids HH and II thru 10/12 to allow higher swells, as well as strong gusty winds, and heavy squall activity to ease. Further W, high pressure ridging over grids KK and JJ will allow for enhanced NE conditions, though these will tend to gradually lower as ridging weakens due to aforementioned trough of low pressure. Otherwise, locally enhanced winds and swells are expected within/near shower/squall activity.

T = 9/12 0600 UTC

SHWRS/SQUALLS* IN ALL GRID AREAS

GG:
T:WINDS E-SE 12-17KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 7-9FT (2SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 0.4KTS.
T+12:WINDS E-SE 11-16KTS SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE 6-8FT (2SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM WSW @ 0.6KTS.
T+24:WINDS E-NE 16-21KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 6-8FT (2SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM NNE @ 0.3KTS.
T+36:WINDS NE-N 15-20KTS SEAS 4-6 SWELLS N-NE  7-9FT (2SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 0.5KTS.

HH:
T:WINDS NW-W 12-17KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 10-12FT (7SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SW @ 0.4KTS.
T+12:WINDS W-SW  09-14KTS SEAS 2-4 SWELLS N-NE 9-11FT (7SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM WSW @ 0.3KTS.
T+24:WINDS SW-S 12-17KTS SEAS 2-4 SWELLS N-NE 8-10FT (7SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 0.3KTS.
T+36:WINDS S-SE 13-18KTS SEAS 4-6 SWELLS N-NE 8-10FT (5SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM S @ 0.5KTS.

MM:
T:WINDS NE-E 10-15KTS SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE  5-7FT (2SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NNE @ 0.8KTS.
T+12:WINDS NE-E 12-17KTS SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (2SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.5KTS.
T+24:WINDS N-NE 15-20KTS SEAS 2-4 SWELLS N-NE  5-7FT (2SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM WSW @ 0.8KTS.
T+36:WINDS N-NE 16-21KTS SEAS 3-5 SWELLS N-NE  5-7FT (2SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM N @ 0.8KTS.

II:
T:WINDS N-NE 18-23KTS SEAS 3-5 SWELLS N-NE 11-13FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM S @ 0.1KTS.
T+12:WINDS N-NE 14-19KTS SEAS 2-4 SWELLS N-NE 12-14FT (11SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.4KTS.
T+24:WINDS NE-N 12-17KTS SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE 10-12FT (11SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 0.3KTS.
T+36:WINDS N-NW 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 9-11FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NW @ 0.3KTS.

JJ:
T:WINDS NE-E 16-21KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 10-12FT (10SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.3KTS.
T+12:WINDS NE-E 16-21KTS SEAS 2-4 SWELLS N-NE 9-12FT (10SEC) SKIES CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.5KTS.
T+24:WINDS NE-E 15-20KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 9-11FT (11SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.4KTS.
T+36:WINDS NE-E 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 9-11FT (11SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.4KTS.

KK:
T:WINDS E-SE 12-17KTS SEAS 2-4 SWELLS N-NE 8-10FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.3KTS.
T+12:WINDS E-SE 15-20KTS SEAS 2-4 SWELLS NE-E 8-10FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 0.7KTS.
T+24:WINDS E-SE 14-19KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NE-E 8-10FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 0.4KTS.
T+36:WINDS E-SE 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 9-11FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.3KTS.

NN:
T:WINDS NE-E 10-15KTS SEAS 0-2 SWELLS N-NE  7-9FT (6SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SW @ 0.1KTS.
T+12:WINDS NE-E 11-16KTS SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE 7-9FT (6SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SW @ 0.6KTS.
T+24:WINDS ENE-ESE 12-17KTS SEAS 2-4 SWELLS N-NE 6-8FT (6SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NW @ 0.3KTS.
T+36:WINDS ENE-ESE 13-18KTS SEAS 3-5 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (3SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.2KTS.

OO:
T:WINDS NE-E 15-20KTS SEAS 2-4 SWELLS N-NE 8-10FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 1.1KTS.
T+12:WINDS NE-E 14-19KTS SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE 8-10FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROMSE @ 0.9KTS.
T+24:WINDS NE-E 14-19KTS SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE 9-11FT (11SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.6KTS.
T+36:WINDS NE-E 14-19KTS SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE 8-10FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 1.2KTS.

PP:
T:WINDS NE-E 18-23KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE  9-11FT (10SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.5KTS.
T+12:WINDS NE-E 15-20KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NE-E 9-11FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.7KTS.
T+24:WINDS NE-E 15-20KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NE-E 8-10FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.2KTS.
T+36:WINDS NE-E 12-17KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NE-E 8-10FT (11SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.6KTS.

QQ:
T:WINDS ENE-ESE 14-19KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NE-E 7-9FT (7SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 0.3KTS.
T+12:WINDS ENE-ESE 13-18KTS SEAS 2-4 SWELLS NE-E 7-9FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSW / WEAKKTS.
T+24:WINDS ENE-ESE 15-20KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NE-E 8-10FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SW @ 0.1KTS.
T+36:WINDS NE-E 15-20KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NE-E 8-10FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.5KTS.

RR:
T:WINDS NE-E 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NE-E  5-7FT (3SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 0.8KTS.
T+12:WINDS NE-E 13-18KTS SEAS 1-3 SWELLS NE-E 5-7FT (3SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 0.8KTS.
T+24:WINDS NE-E 14-19KTS SEAS 2-4 SWELLS NE-E 5-7FT (3SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 0.5KTS.
T+36:WINDS NE-E 12-17KTS SEAS 1-3 SWELLS NE-E 6-8FT (3SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.7KTS.

* WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN SQUALLS