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ARC WEATHER 12/12 0600Z - FORECAST UPDATE #18



ARC WEATHER 12/12 0600Z - FORECAST UPDATE #18
12/12/2014


Synopsis: Broad inverted trough of low pressure extends N from near 19N towards 30N between 50W and 38W this morning, weakening and moving W thru today to between 55W and 43W by tomorrow morning. Trough then dissipates thru early 14/12 while moving SW towards 20N and 60W. Strong cold front extended SW from near 40N/50W towards 25N/63W by early 14/12 will slowly move E towards 45W from 25N to 40N, blocking ridging from building SW across W central Atlantic during this time.

Conclusion: Scattered to widespread squall/shower activity associated with weakening trough is expected across grids JJ and KK later today into tomorrow, though no heavy squalls are forecast at this time as trough will be weakening and breaking down. As trough axis slides across grids thru next 2 days, winds will tend to weaken and become less enhanced from E to W across all girds.

T = 12/12 0600 UTC

SHWRS/SQUALLS* IN ALL GRID AREAS

JJ:
T:WINDS NE-E 09-14KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE  6-8FT (11SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.2KTS.
T+12:WINDS ENE-ESE 09-14KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.6KTS.
T+24:WINDS E-SE 07-12KTS SEAS 1-2 SWELLS NNE-ENE 5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.1KTS.
T+36:WINDS ENE-ESE 09-14KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE  5-7FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.6KTS.

PP:
T:WINDS NNE-ENE 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNW-NNE 7-9FT (11SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NNE @ 0.5KTS.
T+12:WINDS NE-E 11-16KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 6-8FT (11SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NNE @ 0.8KTS.
T+24:WINDS NE-E 10-15KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 5-7FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NNE @ 0.7KTS.
T+36:WINDS ENE-ESE 10-15KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE  5-7FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.7KTS.

KK:
T:WINDS NNE-ENE 15-20KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNE-ENE  7-9FT (11SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 0.3KTS.
T+12:WINDS ENE-ESE 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-ENE  6-8FT (11SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.3KTS.
T+24:WINDS E-SE 11-16KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-ENE 6-8FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 0.3KTS.
T+36:WINDS ENE-ESE 09-14KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-ENE  5-7FT (9SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 0.4KTS.

QQ:
T:WINDS NE-E 16-21KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 8-10FT (11SEC) SKIES MOSTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.2KTS.
T+12:WINDS NE-E 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 7-9FT (11SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.5KTS.
T+24:WINDS NNE-ENE 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNE-ENE 6-8FT (11SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM W @ 0.6KTS.
T+36:WINDS ENE-ESE 11-16KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-ENE  5-7FT (10SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.2KTS.

LL:
T:WINDS ENE-ESE 17-22KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NE-E 7-9FT (2SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM S @ 0.7KTS.
T+12:WINDS NE-E 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NE-E 6-8FT (4SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 0.7KTS.
T+24:WINDS NE-E 14-19KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NE-E 5-7FT (3SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM S @ 0.6KTS.
T+36:WINDS ENE-ESE 11-16KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NE-E 5-7FT (3SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 0.6KTS.

RR:
T:WINDS NE-E 15-20KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNE-ENE 8-10FT (4SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.8KTS.
T+12:WINDS NE-E 15-20KTS SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNE-ENE 7-9FT (3SEC) SKIES PRTLY CLDY CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.9KTS.
T+24:WINDS NE-E 13-18KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NE-E 6-8FT (3SEC) SKIES CLEAR. CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.5KTS.
T+36:WINDS NE-E 11-16KTS SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NE-E 5-7FT (4SEC) SKIES CLEAR. CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.7KTS.

* WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN SQUALLS