GOOD MORNING. THIS FORECAST IS FOR LEG 1A FROM TORTOLA TO BERMUDA.
SYNOPSIS: AT 08/09Z, SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WAS CENTERED NEAR 31.6N 77.8W (ABOUT 150NM ESE OF CHARLESTON, SOUTH CAROLINA), WITH MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY, WITH MAXWINDS 40- 50KTS. GALE RADIUS IS 120NM NW'RN QUADRANT, 150NM NE'RN QUADRANT, 060NM SE'RN QUADRANT, 90NM SW'RN QUADRANT.
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT, AND CONSISTS OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE MAJORITY OF SQUALLS LOCATED OVER THE S'RN SEMICIRCLE. CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MODESTLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEMS LOCATION OVER THE GULFSTREAM WILL HELP FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TODAY.
THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NW'WARD TOWARDS THE E'RN COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE 10TH, WITH SLOW WEAKENING EXPECTED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR. HOWEVER, AT ANY TIME, THE SYSTEM MAY BRIEFLY TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL STORM.
AFTER MAKING LANDFALL ON THE 10TH, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE N'WARD INTO E'RN NORTH CAROLINA ON THE 11TH WHILE WEAKENING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, AND THEN BECOME A NON TROPICAL LOW WHILE MOVING NE'WARD TO JUST OFFSHORE MARYLAND THROUGH THE MORNING OF THE 12TH. THE SYSTEM THEN STRENGTHENS INTO A NON-TROPICAL GALE WHILE MOVING NE'WARD TO NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH THE 13TH.
FCST POSITIONS MAXWINDS GALE RADIUS (34KTS)
TIME LAT / LON (KNOTS) QUADRANTS - (NM)
---------------------------------------------------------
08/18Z: 31.7N 77.8W 45- 55KTS 150NE 060SE 090SW 120NW
09/06Z: 31.9N 78.0W 45- 55KTS 120NE 090SE 090SW 090NW
09/18Z: 32.2N 78.2W 40- 50KTS 120NE 090SE 060SW 090NW
10/06Z: 32.8N 78.9W 35- 45KTS 120NE 060SE 060SW 060NW
11/06Z: 34.1N 79.3W 30- 40KTS NO SUSTAINED GALES
12/06Z: 37.7N 75.0W 30- 40KTS NO SUSTAINED GALES
13/06Z: 43.0N 65.0W 30- 40KTS NO SUSTAINED GALES
ELSEWHERE, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 30N/55W WILL BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A STRONGER HIGH THAT WILL MOVE S'WARD FORM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TOMORROW. THE MERGED HIGHS WILL PUSH S'WARD AS IT BROADENS SOMEWHAT ALONG AND BETWEEN 30N-35N THROUGH THE 10TH WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE 12TH. RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE INITIAL HIGH EXTENDS SW'WARD INTO/ACROSS THE VI'S AND THE E'RN CARIBBEAN SEA MODERATELY AT THIS TIME, AND THIS RIDGING WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE 10TH AS THE HIGHS MERGE. THE RIDGING WILL BE STRONGEST FROM NEAR 25N TO THE VI'S, WITH BROADER/WEAKER RIDGING FROM 25N TO 35N THROUGH THE AXIS OF THE HIGH. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITHIN THIS REGION THROUGH THE 12TH.
IN THE LONG RANGE, THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E'WARD A BIT, AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE AZORES WSW'WARD TO 30N/60W ON THE 14TH. OFF THE US EAST COAST, A FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON THE 13TH, AND BY THE 14TH WILL EXTEND FROM GEORGIA NE'WARD TO THE GRAND BANKS.
CONCLUSION: SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA IS NOT A THREAT TO THE LEG 1AM VESSELS FROM TORTOLA TO BERMUDA. THE MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE THE VARING RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. FOR THE MOST PART, THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY FAVORABLE SAILING CONDITIONS, WITH MOSTLY BEAM REACHING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND MODERATE SWELLS. THE ONLY AREA TO NOT SEE THIS WILL BE NEAR BERMUDA TOWARDS THE 12TH, WHEN MORE SSE'LY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS/SQUALLS EXPECTED FOR ALL GRIDS, BUT NO WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED.
PLEASE NOTE THAT FOR THE BELOW 3 GRIDS, THE HIGHEST WINDS DESCRIBED WILL BE IN THE S'RN HALF OF EACH GRID.
ZONE A FORECAST:
09/12 GMT(T + 0): WINDS E-SE(90 - 135) 15-20KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS ENE-ESE
5-7FT (2SEC). SKIES CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM E @
0.2KTS.
10/00 GMT(T + 12): WINDS ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 15-20KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS
ENE-ESE 5-7FT (2SEC). SKIES CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.2KTS.
10/12 GMT(T + 24): WINDS ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 15-20 GUSTS 22KTS. SEAS 2-4
SWELLS ENE-ESE 5-7FT (2SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.4KTS.
11/00 GMT(T + 36): WINDS ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 15-20 GUSTS 22KTS. SEAS 2-4
SWELLS ENE-ESE 5-7FT (2SEC). SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.4KTS.
11/12 GMT(T + 48): WINDS ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 19-24KTS. SEAS 3-4 SWELLS
ENE-ESE 5-7FT (5SEC). SKIES CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROMESE @ 0.2KTS.
12/00 GMT(T + 60): WINDS ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 17-22 GUSTS 24KTS. SEAS 3-4
SWELLS ENE-ESE 6-8FT (5SEC). SKIES CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.5KTS.
12/12 GMT(T + 72): WINDS ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 15-20KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS
ENE-ESE 6-8FT (5SEC). SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.3KTS.
13/00 GMT(T + 84): WINDS ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 15-20KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS
ENE-ESE 6-8FT (5SEC). SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.3KTS.
13/12 GMT(T + 96): WINDS ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 14-19KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS
ENE-ESE 6-8FT (5SEC). SKIES CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.3KTS.
14/00 GMT(T + 108): WINDS ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 12-17KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS
ENE-ESE 5-7FT (5SEC). SKIES CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.3KTS.
ZONE B FORECAST:
09/12 GMT(T + 0): WINDS E-SE(90 - 135) 08-13KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS E-SE
3-6FT (6SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 0.6KTS.
10/00 GMT(T + 12): WINDS NE-E(45 - 90) 10-15KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS E-SE
3-6FT (6SEC). SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM S @ 0.7KTS.
10/12 GMT(T + 24): WINDS ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 10-15KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS
ENE-ESE 3-6FT (5SEC). SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 0.6KTS.
11/00 GMT(T + 36): WINDS ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 12-17KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS E-SE
4-6FT (5SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM S @ 0.8KTS.
11/12 GMT(T + 48): WINDS ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 13-18KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS E-SE
4-6FT (7SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM SW @ 0.5KTS.
12/00 GMT(T + 60): WINDS ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 13-18KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS E-SE
5-7FT (6SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 0.9KTS.
12/12 GMT(T + 72): WINDS ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 14-19KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS E-SE
5-7FT (7SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM SW @ 0.6KTS.
13/00 GMT(T + 84): WINDS ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 13-18KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS E-SE
5-7FT (7SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 0.8KTS.
13/12 GMT(T + 96): WINDS ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 13-18KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS
ENE-ESE 5-7FT (7SEC). SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 0.8KTS.
14/00 GMT(T + 108): WINDS NE-E(45 - 90) 12-17KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS E-SE
4-7FT (7SEC). SKIES CLEAR. CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 0.8KTS.
ZONE C FORECAST:
09/12 GMT(T + 0): WINDS ESE-SSE(113 - 158) 09-14KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS
ESE-SSE 3-5FT (5SEC). SKIES CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.5KTS.
10/00 GMT(T + 12): WINDS E-SE(90 - 135) 13-18KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS E-SE
3-5FT (3SEC). SKIES CLEAR. CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.6KTS.
10/12 GMT(T + 24): WINDS E-SE(90 - 135) 13-18KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS E-SE
3-5FT (4SEC). SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.5KTS.
11/00 GMT(T + 36): WINDS E-SE(90 - 135) 13-18KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-ENE
3-6FT (7SEC). SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.4KTS.
11/12 GMT(T + 48): WINDS ESE-SSE(113 - 158) 10-15KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS
ENE-ESE 3-6FT (7SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.7KTS.
12/00 GMT(T + 60): WINDS ESE-SSE(113 - 158) 10-15KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS
NNE-ENE 3-6FT (6SEC). SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 1KTS.
12/12 GMT(T + 72): WINDS ESE-SSE(113 - 158) 10-15KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS NE-E
3-5FT (4SEC). SKIES CLEAR. CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 1.2KTS.
13/00 GMT(T + 84): WINDS SE-S(135 - 180) 10-15KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS E-SE
3-6FT (4SEC). SKIES CLEAR. CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 0.8KTS.
13/12 GMT(T + 96): WINDS SSE-SSW(158 - 203) 10-15KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE
3-5FT (8SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 0.8KTS.
14/00 GMT(T + 108): WINDS SSE-SSW(158 - 203) 10-15KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS
ESE-SSE 3-5FT (7SEC). SKIES CLEAR. CURRENTS FROM SSE @ 0.8KTS.
* WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN SQUALLS
BEST REGARDS, WEATHER ROUTING INC. (WRI)
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