GOOD MORNING. THIS FORECAST IS FOR LEG 1A FROM TORTOLA TO BERMUDA.
SYNOPSIS: AT 09/09Z, TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS CENTERED NEAR 32.4N 77.6W (ABOUT 120NM ESE OF CHARLESTON, SOUTH CAROLINA), MOVING NNW'WARD AT 03KTS, WITH MAXWINDS 50- 60KTS. GALE RADIUS IS 090NM W'RN SEMICIRCLE, 120NM E'RN SEMICIRCLE.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL STORM ANA REMAINING MOSTLY STATIONARY WITH SLIGHT MOTION TOWARD THE NW, WHILE SQUALLS ORGANIZE AROUND THE N'RN PORTION OF THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY DRIFTING N-NW'WARD WHILE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM ANA IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON THE 11TH, TURNING MORE NE'WARD AND BECOMING A NON-TROPICAL LOW AS IT CONTINUES NEARING S'RN NEW ENGLAND ON THE 12TH.
FCST POSITIONS MAXWINDS GALE RADIUS (34KTS)
TIME LAT / LON (KNOTS) QUADRANTS - (NM)
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09/18Z: 32.8N 77.9W 45- 55KTS 120NE 120SE 090SW 090NW
10/06Z: 33.5N 78.4W 40- 50KTS 120NE 120SE 060SW 090NW
10/18Z: 34.3N 78.6W 35- 45KTS 120NE 090SE 060SW 060NW
11/06Z: 35.2N 78.0W 30- 40KTS NO SUSTAINED GALES
12/06Z: 39.0N 73.9W 30- 40KTS NO SUSTAINED GALES
ELSEWHERE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL DRIFT S-SE'WARD WHILE STRENGTHENING THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH RIDGING EXTENDING S'WARD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN AND E'WARD THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND BAHAMAS. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES S'WARD.
CONCLUSION: TROPICAL STORM ANA IS NOT A THREAT TO THE LEG 1A VESSELS FROM TORTOLA TO BERMUDA. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXPECTED TO REMAIN BROAD THROUGH TODAY WHILE STRENGTHENING THROUGH TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO YIELD MOSTLY FAVORABLE BEAM REACHING CONDITIONS AND MODERATE SWELLS, WITH CONDITIONS INCREASING THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE RIDGING STRENGTHENS. THE LIGHTEST CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND NEAR BERMUDA TOMORROW AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDS OVER ZONE C. NO WIDESPREAD SQUALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RACE GRIDS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
ZONE A FORECAST:
09/12 GMT(T + 0): WINDS ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 14-19 GUSTS 22KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS ENE-ESE 5-7FT (3SEC). SKIES CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.4KTS.
10/00 GMT(T + 12): WINDS NE-E(45 - 90) 17-22 GUSTS 25KTS. SEAS 3-4 SWELLS ENE-ESE 4-6FT (2SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.6KTS.
10/12 GMT(T + 24): WINDS ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 18-23 GUSTS 25KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS ENE-ESE 5-7FT (2SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.5KTS.
11/00 GMT(T + 36): WINDS NE-E(45 - 90) 16-21 GUSTS 24KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS ENE-ESE 5-7FT (2SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.4KTS.
ZONE B FORECAST:
09/12 GMT(T + 0): WINDS E-SE(90 - 135) 11-16KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS E-SE 2-4FT (6SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM S @ 0.7KTS.
10/00 GMT(T + 12): WINDS ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 10-15KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS E-SE 2-4FT (5SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM S @ 0.9KTS.
10/12 GMT(T + 24): WINDS ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 13-18KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS ENE-ESE 3-5FT (5SEC). SKIES CLEAR. CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 0.6KTS.
11/00 GMT(T + 36): WINDS ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 13-18KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS E-SE 4-6FT (5SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM S @ 0.8KTS.
ZONE C FORECAST:
09/12 GMT(T + 0): WINDS SE-S(135 - 180) 08-13KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS ESE-SSE 3-5FT (4SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.5KTS.
10/00 GMT(T + 12): WINDS ESE-SSE(113 - 158) 13-18KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS ESE-SSE 4-6FT (3SEC). SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.7KTS.
10/12 GMT(T + 24): WINDS ESE-SSE(113 - 158) 13-18KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS E-SE 3-5FT (4SEC). SKIES CLOUDY. CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.5KTS.
11/00 GMT(T + 36): WINDS E-SE(90 - 135) 10-15KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS E-SE 3-5FT (5SEC). SKIES CLOUDY. CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.9KTS.
* WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN SQUALLS
BEST REGARDS, WEATHER ROUTING INC. (WRI)
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